I discussed why the Miami Heat are unlikely to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo in my post on Friday. TL;DR: The Heat have no assets, and Giannis has no leverage. (But in any case, click and read it!)

Nevertheless, if the Heat began considering bids for Antetokounmpo, there’s little question that they would contact the Milwaukee Bucks. What would be the best offer from Miami, then?

It’s important to note before we move on that Pat Riley and company have rarely, if ever, given a star player their whole attention. These people are typically purchased for below-market value or for nothing at all.

LeBron James was acquired in a sign-and-trade for just a first-round selection, and it turns out that Jimmy Butler’s sign-and-trade in 2019 was a great deal. Over the years, Miami saw players like Kevin Durant and Damian Lillard get dealt to other teams after refusing to make its highest offer for them.

The Miami Heat’s best offer for Giannis Antetokounmpo may look like this, though it’s complex.
Giannis is a 30-year-old former MVP who is still at the top of his game, thus the Heat wouldn’t get him if they were to undercut the Bucks for him. Is Giannis a player worth breaking the bank for, and possibly losing the team’s face?

A few other points to note are that the Bucks are a second tier team, which means they are not allowed to collect aggregate salary or extra money in a deal. They will have to trade just Giannis and receive less money in exchange if they trade Giannis.

The Heat are a first-apron team, which makes a deal with them challenging. They are able to combine salaries, but they are also unable to recoup more funds from a transaction.

Therefore, the Heat and Bucks either broker a multi-team deal with a team that can take on extra revenue (for a fee) or they negotiate a contract with the precise amount of money (to the penny) being traded.

Miami’s best offer might look like this:

Obtain heat: Antetokounmpo

Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware, Nikola Jovic, and Pelle Larsson are acquired by the Bucks.

Alec Burks, a Miami second-round pick, is acquired by the Pistons.

That’s a lot to give up in a trade, and it might not be worth it for the Heat, but given that they would probably be up against clubs who could offer much more in draft money and young players, it might be necessary.

The conditions and likelihood of the Heat making a deal for Antetokounmpo

The Milwaukee Bucks’ lackluster start has led some NBA watchers to question Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future with the team.

Even if Antetokounmpo averages 30.4 points on 65.6% shooting, 11.6 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game, the Bucks are 1-4. Even while he continues to play at an MVP level, Milwaukee’s team may not be strong enough to contend for a title. Khris Middleton has trouble staying healthy, Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez are getting older, and the roster is shallow.

It’s reasonable to question whether Milwaukee’s widow has closed given their limited financial freedom (third-highest payroll in the league) and lack of resources to bolster the roster.

Bill Reiter of CBS Sports claims that rival front offices are speculating about Antetokounmpo becoming the next star to ask for a trade. The Miami Heat were mentioned by one executive as a possible destination.

One team executive from the Western Conference stated, “Teams are circling — and hopeful.”

A prominent executive from a team that might be in the running stated, “I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened by the trade deadline.”

The locations thought to be Giannis’ preferred destinations have already been confirmed by an NBA executive from the Eastern Conference: “The teams I’ve heard are Miami and New York — the Nets, not the Knicks.”

Although Heat supporters find it intriguing, Giannis wearing a Heat jersey is improbable.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is unattainable for Heat supporters.
Antetokounmpo has a three-year contract extension, to start. He doesn’t have much power, even if he wanted to choose his next team. Even elite athletes find it challenging to push themselves to their desired goal when they are unable to decline a new contract with the team that is acquiring them, as Lillard discovered.

The Heat would struggle to compete with other possible offers, even if Antetokounmpo made a trade request and the Bucks gave in.

Miami only has one first-round pick that can be traded (two if some protections are changed). Even while young players like Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic, and Kel’el Ware are helpful or expected to be, none of them are considered blue-chip prospects deserving of an MVP return.

Would the Heat think about acquiring Bam Adebayo? The Bucks would inquire. Three years younger than Antetokounmpo, Adebayo is 27. A three-time All-Star and consistent contender for Defensive Player of the Year, he is regarded by most as one of the NBA’s top 20 players. Other celebrities want to play with him as well. The Bucks could still contend with Bam, Lillard, Lopez, and Middleton, and Adebayo might be the greatest player added to any Antetokounmpo trade.

Even though Antetokounmpo is unquestionably the superior player, dealing Adebayo for him would be a challenging choice complicated by off-court issues. For the past year, the Heat have supported Bam as the team’s spokesperson. He might be the next Heat player to have a statue, Dwyane Wade recently said. Bam is adored by the company.

However, it would be malpractice for Pat Riley to not trade Adebayo (and anything else) for Antetokounmpo if he thought it would result in a championship.

What is the difference between this Heat core and a group centered around Antetokounmpo and an aging Jimmy Butler? or, for that matter, Buck’s core?

Those Heat would still have to contend with their two studs’ existing spacing problems. Despite being two years older than Middleton, Butler is generally healthier. The Heat still lack an outside scoring threat of Lillard’s magnitude, despite Herro’s development this season.

They would be more structured and better coached. Perhaps Giannis just needs that. However, it would be a huge risk. The Heat would only have a 30-year-old Giannis and empty cupboards if Butler were to decline his option and depart in free agency next year.

(Trading Butler for Antetokounmpo is not an option for the Bucks because it hardly makes any sense.)

Milwaukee could leverage the draft picks and young talent that teams like the Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs, and Oklahoma City Thunder might offer to rebuild and strengthen their assets, all while keeping their top players to support Giannis. For those teams, the fit is more natural, and the risks are much less apparent.